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    Representing Climatic Uncertainty in Agricultural Models- An Application of State-Contingetnt Theory

    Crean, Jason; Parton, Kevin; Mullen, John; Jones, Randall | June 2013
    Abstract
    The state-contingent approach to production uncertainty presents a more general model than the conventional stochastic production approach. Here we investigate whether the state-contingent approach offers a tractable framework for representing climatic uncertainty at a farm level. We developed a discrete stochastic programming (DSP) model of a representative wheat–sheep (mixed) farm in the Central West of NSW. More explicit recognition of climatic states, and associated state-contingent responses, led to optimal farm plans that were more profitable on average and less prone to the effects of variations in climate than comparable farm plans based on the expected value framework. The solutions from the DSP model also appeared to more closely resemble farm land use than the equivalent expected value model using the same data. We conclude that there are benefits of adopting a state-contingent view of uncertainty, giving support to its more widespread application to other problems.
    Citation
    Crean, Jason; Parton, Kevin; Mullen, John; Jones, Randall. 2013. Representing Climatic Uncertainty in Agricultural Models- An Application of State-Contingetnt Theory. © Wiley. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/4274.
    Keywords
    Climate
    Climate change
    Climate impacts assessment
    Global climate change
    Rural Development
    Rural Development Projects
    Rural Development Research
    Climatic change
    Climatic influence
    Climatology
    Investment bank
    Investment policy
    Rural areas
    Rural economy
    Rural planning
    Rural poverty
    Development potential
    Climatic factor
    Soils and climate
    Dynamic climatology
    Climate change mitigation
    Communication in rural development
    Rural enterprise zones
    Rural manpower policy
    Environment impact analysis
    City planning
    Urban climatology
    Bank investment
    Capital investment
    Investment banking
    Venture capital
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/4274
    Metadata
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    Author
    Crean, Jason
    Parton, Kevin
    Mullen, John
    Jones, Randall
    Theme
    Climate
    Development
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise