Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained?Policies and Implications for Development and Growth

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which Pakistan's growth has been, or is likely to be, constrained by its balance of payments. Evidence presented suggests that Pakistan's maximum growth rate consistent with equilibrium on the basic balance is approximately 5% per annum. This is below the long-term target GDP growth rate of 7–8% per annum. This balance-of-payments constrained growth approach provides some important implications for Pakistan's development policy. Real exchange rate depreciations will not lead to an improvement in the current account. Pakistan must lift the constraints that impede higher growth in exports. In particular, it must shift its export structure towards more sophisticated products with a higher income elasticity of demand.