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The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints

dc.contributor.authorJesus Felipe
dc.contributor.authorMatteo Lanzafame
dc.contributor.authorJuzhong Zhuang
dc.date.accessioned2015-04-29T14:29:36Z
dc.date.available2015-04-29T14:29:36Z
dc.date.issued2014-11-15
dc.identifier.issn2313-6537
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11540/4214
dc.description.abstractWe estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC’s natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC’s potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC’s potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.titleThe People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertTrade Facilitation
dc.subject.expertTrade
dc.subject.expertEconomic integration
dc.subject.expertRegional Economic Integration
dc.subject.expertFree Trade
dc.subject.expertTrade Agreements
dc.subject.expertTrade Policy
dc.subject.expertEconomic Development
dc.subject.expertEconomics
dc.subject.expertInternational Economics
dc.subject.expertIntraregional Trade
dc.subject.adbEconomic planning
dc.subject.adbEconomic structure
dc.subject.adbGrowth policy
dc.subject.adbTrade relations
dc.subject.adbTrade policy
dc.subject.adbTrade policy
dc.subject.adbEconomic development
dc.subject.naturalRegional economics
dc.subject.naturalEconomic forecasting
dc.subject.naturalEconomic development projects
dc.subject.naturalSuccess in business
dc.subject.naturalBusiness
dc.subject.naturalFree trade
dc.subject.naturalBusiness
dc.subject.naturalEconomics
dc.title.seriesADB Economics Working Paper Series
dc.title.volume418
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank
oar.themeTrade
oar.themeEconomics
oar.themeLabor Migration
oar.adminregionEast Asia Region
oar.countryPeople's Republic of China
oar.identifierOAR-004557
oar.authorFelipe, Jesus
oar.authorLanzafame, Matteo
oar.authorZhuang, Juzhong
oar.importtrue
oar.googlescholar.linkpresenttrue


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