Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?
Lee, Jong-Wha; Pyun, Ju Hyun | January 2009
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of trade integration on military conflict. Our empirical analysis, based on a large panel data set of 290,040 country-pair observations from 1950 to 2000, confirms that an increase in bilateral trade interdependence and global trade openness significantly promotes peace. It also suggests that the effect of trade openness varies depending on the geographical proximity of countries. The peace-promotion effect of bilateral trade integration is significantly higher for contiguous countries that are likely to experience more conflicts. The analysis shows, however, that an increase in global trade openness reduces the probability of conflict more for countries far apart from each other than it does for countries sharing borders. The results also show that military conflict between countries significantly reduces not only bilateral trade interdependence but also multilateral trade integration. The main finding of the peace-promotion effect of bilateral and global trade integration holds robust when controlling for the natural and geopolitical characteristics of dyads of states that may influence the probability of military conflict and for the simultaneous determination of trade and peace.
Citation
Lee, Jong-Wha; Pyun, Ju Hyun. 2009. Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/4196. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.Keywords
Regionalism
Regional Economy
Regional Trading Arrangements
Regional Trade Integration
Regional Economic Integration
Regional Cooperation
Interregional Cooperation
Trade Disputes
Trade Barriers
Economic integration
Regional Development Bank
Preferential tariffs
International negotiation
Protectionist measures
Access to markets
Economic agreements
International trade law
Regional integration
Trade relations
Regional disparities
Interregionalism
Regional economic disparities
Regional economic blocs
Industrial arbitration
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/4196Metadata
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