Afghanistan: Balancing Social and Security Spending in the Context of a Shrinking Resource Envelope
Fukac, Martin; Aslam, Aqib; Berkes, Enrico; Menkulasi, Jeta; Schimmelpfennig, Axel | June 2014
Abstract
For Afghanistan, the dual prospect of declining donor support and high ongoing security spending over the medium term keeps its government budget tight. This paper uses a general equilibrium model to capture the security–development trade-off facing the government in its effort to rehabilitate growth and fiscal sustainability. In particular, it considers strategic policy options for counteracting and minimizing the negative macroeconomic impact of possible aid and revenue shortfalls. We find that the mobilization of domestic revenues through changes in tax policy is the preferred policy response for the Afghan central government. Such a response helps to place its finances on a sustainable path in the near term and preserve most of the growth potential. Cutting expenditures balances public finances but causes the economy to permanently shrink. Debt financing helps to preserve much of the economy size but can quickly put the sustainability of public finances at risk.
Citation
Fukac, Martin; Aslam, Aqib; Berkes, Enrico; Menkulasi, Jeta; Schimmelpfennig, Axel. 2014. Afghanistan: Balancing Social and Security Spending in the Context of a Shrinking Resource Envelope. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/4095. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.Keywords
Urban Development Finance
Trade Finance
Small Business Finance
Rural Finance
Roundtable on International Trade and Finance
Regional Development Finance
Public Service Finance
Public Finance
Project Finance
Private Finance
Nonbank Financing
Non-Bank Financial Institutions
Municipal Finance
Local Government Finance
Local Currency Financing
Limited Resource Financing
International Financial Institutions
Infrastructure Financing
Industrial Finance
Government Financial Institutions
Government Finance
Financing of Infrastructure
Financial Sector Development
Financial Regulation
Taxation
Public Accounting
National Budget
Municipal Bonds
Local Government
Local Taxes
International Monetary Relations
International Financial Market
International Banking
Central Banks
Business Financing
Capital Resources
Budgetary Policy
Capital Needs
Corporate Divestiture
Capital Instruments
Pension Funds
Insurance Companies
Banks
Portfolio Management
Fiscal Administration
Economics of Education
Development Banks
Use tax
Taxing power
State of taxation
Tax-sales
Tax revenue estimating
Tax planning
Spendings tax
Special assessments
Tax administration and procedure
Sales tax
Real property and taxation
Progressive taxation
Effect of taxation on land use
Effect of taxation on labor supply
Intergovernmental tax relations
Inheritance and transfer tax
Energy tax
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