Overview of PRC in East Asian Trade

Abstract

PRC’s economic emergence over the last two decades, and in particular its recent WTO accession initiative, portend a dramatically changed landscape of East Asian trade. This has aroused concern around the region, where PRC’s success as an exporter poses a threat to other economies that rely on external demand as an essential source of growth. At the same time, the early stage of PRC’s development understates the opportunities its internal market will ultimately offer exporters, particularly in East Asia. The resulting bias in perceptions could undermine multilateralism and retard the dramatic historical progress of regional trade and economic growth. Our research reveals a more complex picture of PRC’s emergence, however, one that presents as many opportunities as threats to East Asian policy makers. In this first of three studies, we forecast the evolution of East Asian trade patterns under a variety of alternative policy scenarios.