Myanmar: Long-Term Scenarios for Sustained Macroeconomic Growth

Abstract

The paper uses a dynamic economic forecasting model to evaluate Myanmar’s growth drivers to sustain its economic growth. Simulation results suggest that there is a broad horizon of opportunity for promoting rapid and inclusive economic growth. Increasing agricultural productivity, for example, will not only benefit the country’s rural poor majority, but it will also release labor resources to facilitate industrial and service sector development. Conversely, industrial and urban development will facilitate agrifood supply chains, improving market access and real rural incomes. Public commitments to improving infrastructure, education, and public health will also be essential to realizing Myanmar’s vast economic potential.