Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China
Kawai, Masahiro; Liu, Li-Gang | February 2015
Abstract
This paper first reviews recent developments in exchange rate regimes, capital account liberalization, interest rate liberalization, and monetary policymaking in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It then observes that the PRC’s monetary policy autonomy may have been reduced with falling capital control effectiveness and a rigid exchange regime that is still tightly managed against the United States (US) dollar. This hypothesis is investigated empirically using both the Taylor rule and the McCallum-like rule to test whether the PRC’s money market interest rate and/or quantity of money supply are being increasingly influenced by the US interest rate or reserve accumulation. The paper concludes that there is considerable evidence suggesting diminishing monetary policy autonomy in the PRC. To regain policy autonomy, the monetary authority needs to substantially increase exchange rate flexibility of the renminbi as long as it continues to pursue capital account opening.
Citation
Kawai, Masahiro; Liu, Li-Gang. 2015. Trilemma Challenges for the People's Republic of China. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/3983. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.Keywords
Development Economics
Regional Economic Development
Economic Impact
Asian Development Bank
Development
Economic Boom
Regional Economic Integration
Good Governance
Governance Approach
Economic planning
Economic structure
Growth policy
Trade relations
Trade policy
Trade policy
Economic development
Economies in transition
International economy
Border integration
Economic integration
Gross domestic product
Trade policy
Institutional Framework
Public Administration
Business Ethics
Regional economics
Economic forecasting
Economic development projects
Success in business
Business
Free trade
Business
Economics
Communication in economic development
Restraint of trade
International economic integration
Trade blocs
East-West trade
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