A Short-Run Analysis of Exchange Rates and International Trade with an Application to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan
Anson, José; Boffa, Mauro; Helble, Matthias | April 2014
Abstract
The information and communication technology (ICT) revolution of the past 3 decades has transformed the world into an integrated marketplace. Today, producers and consumers alike are able to compare the prices of local businesses and worldwide sellers. For an increasing number of tradable goods, they can take advantage of arbitrage opportunities between online and offline transactions. One of the key exogenous elements behind this arbitrage is exchange rate movements. The existing literature on exchange rates has concluded that nominal prices can be assumed to be rigid, which thus opens the door to short-term international arbitrage. However, empirical evidence of international short-term arbitrage has so far been lacking due to data constraints. In this paper, we first present a new dataset that holds records on daily international exchanges of goods, namely those sent through the international postal logistics network. We then combine this data set with daily data on international exchange rate movements to test the hypothesis of international arbitrage. Applying different econometric techniques, we show that in an environment of floating exchange rates, almost instantaneous short-term international arbitrage is indeed occurring and that it has a persistent effect. The effect seems to be particularly pronounced in the developed countries of Asia and the Pacific.
Citation
Anson, José; Boffa, Mauro; Helble, Matthias. 2014. A Short-Run Analysis of Exchange Rates and International Trade with an Application to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/3971. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.Keywords
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Operations Evaluation
Evaluation
World Trade
Trade Volume
Trade Promotion
Trade Flows
Trade Development
Patterns Of Trade
Resources evaluation
Input output analysis
Import volume
Export volume
Export Development
Economic agreements
International market
Import policy
Export policy
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Participative management
Foreign trade routes
Trade routes
Foreign trade and employment
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http://hdl.handle.net/11540/3971Metadata
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