The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma
Aizenman, Joshua; Chinn, Menzie D.; Ito, Hiro | April 2010
Abstract
This paper extends our previous paper (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito 2008) and explores some of the unexplored questions. First, we examine the channels through which the trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility. Secondly, we investigate how trilemma policy configurations affect the output performance of the economies under severe crisis situations. Thirdly, we look into how trilemma configurations have evolved in the aftermath of economic crises in the past. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility mainly through the investment channel. While a higher degree of exchange rate stability could stabilize the real exchange rate movement, it could also make investment volatile, though the volatility-enhancing effect of exchange rate stability on investment can be cancelled by holding higher levels of international reserves (IR). Greater financial openness helps reduce real exchange rate volatility. These results indicate that policymakers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness while holding a massive amount of IR. We also find that the “crisis economies” could end up with smaller output losses if they entered the crisis situation with more stable exchange rates or if they continue to hold a high level of IR and maintain greater exchange rate stability during the crisis period. Lastly, we find that developing countries are often found to have decreased the level of monetary independence and financial openness, but increased the level of exchange rate stability in the aftermath of a crisis, especially for the last two decades. This finding indicates how vulnerable developing countries, especially emerging market ones, are to volatile capital flows as a result of global financial liberalization.
Citation
Aizenman, Joshua; Chinn, Menzie D.; Ito, Hiro. 2010. The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/3801. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.Keywords
Urban Development Finance
Trade Finance
Small Business Finance
Rural Finance
Roundtable on International Trade and Finance
Regional Development Finance
Public Service Finance
Public Finance
Project Finance
Private Finance
Nonbank Financing
Non-Bank Financial Institutions
Municipal Finance
Local Government Finance
Local Currency Financing
Limited Resource Financing
International Financial Institutions
Infrastructure Financing
Industrial Finance
Government Financial Institutions
Government Finance
Financing of Infrastructure
Financial Sector Development
Financial Regulation
Alleviating Poverty
Anti-Poverty
Extreme Poverty
Fight Against Poverty
Global Poverty
Health Aspects Of Poverty
Indicators Of Poverty
Participatory Poverty Assessment
Poverty Eradication
Poverty Analysis
Poverty In Developing Countries
Poverty Reduction Efforts
Urban Poverty
Taxation
Public Accounting
National Budget
Municipal Bonds
Local Government
Local Taxes
International Monetary Relations
International Financial Market
International Banking
Central Banks
Business Financing
Capital Resources
Budgetary Policy
Capital Needs
Corporate Divestiture
Capital Instruments
Pension Funds
Insurance Companies
Banks
Portfolio Management
Development Indicators
Environmental Indicators
Economic Indicators
Educational Indicators
Demographic Indicators
Health Indicators
Disadvantaged Groups
Low Income Groups
Socially Disadvantaged Children
Rural Conditions
Rural Development
Social Conditions
Urban Development
Urban Sociology
Grants
Loans
Use tax
Taxing power
State of taxation
Tax-sales
Tax revenue estimating
Tax planning
Spendings tax
Special assessments
Tax administration and procedure
Sales tax
Real property and taxation
Progressive taxation
Effect of taxation on land use
Effect of taxation on labor supply
Intergovernmental tax relations
Inheritance and transfer tax
Energy tax
Investment of public funds
Intergovernmental fiscal relations
Social infrastructure
Public works
Government lending
Poor
Economic forecasting
Health expectancy
Social groups
Political participation
Distribution of income
Inequality of income
Developing countries
Rural community development
Mass society
Social change
Social policy
Social stability
Population
Sustainable development
Peasantry
Urban policy
Urban renewal
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