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Measuring the Economic Costs of Conflict

dc.contributor.authorSungsup Ra
dc.contributor.authorBipul Singh
dc.description.abstractThis paper attempts to measure the economic costs of conflict, focusing particularly on the impact of continued decline in development expenditures on gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The Nepal Macroeconometric Model is used to estimate GDP growth under different conflict and no-conflict scenarios of development expenditures. Scenario analysis indicates that if development expenditures decline at the current rate (4.2%), the total GDP growth loss is 8.3% for the period between the fiscal years 2005 and 2009, an average loss of 1.7% of growth per annum. If the conflict intensifies and development expenditures decline at twice the current rate (8.4%), total GDP growth lost is 10.3%, an average loss of 2.1% of growth per annum.
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.titleMeasuring the Economic Costs of Conflict
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Analysis
dc.subject.expertPerformance Evaluation
dc.subject.expertImpact Evaluation
dc.subject.adbEconomic indicators
dc.subject.adbGrowth models
dc.subject.adbGross domestic product
dc.subject.adbEconomic forecast
dc.subject.naturalEconomic development projects
dc.subject.naturalEconomic policy
dc.subject.naturalEconomic forecasting
dc.title.seriesNRM Working Paper
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank
oar.themeLabor Migration
oar.adminregionSouth Asia Region
oar.authorRa, Sungsup
oar.authorSingh, Bipul

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  • ADB South Asia Working Paper Series
    The South Asia Working Paper Series of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a forum for ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken in ADB or on its behalf. The series is a knowledge product that replaces the South Asia Economic Report and South Asia Occasional Paper Series. It is meant to enhance greater understanding of current important economic and development issues in South Asia, promote policy dialogue among stakeholders, and facilitate reforms and development management. The ADB south Asia Working Paper Series, maintained by the South Asia Department of ADB, is a quick-disseminating, informal publication whose titles could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals or chapters in books.

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