Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns, and Projections
Athukorala, Prema-chandra | January 2011
Abstract
This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) up to 2030 against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People’s Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modelling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next 2 decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries’ rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.
Citation
Athukorala, Prema-chandra. 2011. Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns, and Projections. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/2057. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
1655-5252
Keywords
Asian Development Bank
Development
Trade
Development Goals
Skills Development
Sustainable Development
Trade Flows
Trade And Development
Food Security And Trade
Development assistance
ADB
Curriculum development
Development assistance
Development aid
Development indicators
Development potential
Development models
Project appraisal
Performance appraisal
Regional development bank
Trade development
Import volume
Export volume
Capital
Business
Communication in rural development
Social participation
Occupational training
Partnership
Joint venture
System analysis
Labor and globalization
Labor policy
Regional trading blocs
Foreign trade and employment
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/2057Metadata
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