Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in the Asian and Pacific Region

Abstract

This paper reports estimates of the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in the Asian and Pacific region using a standard growth model. Following previous research on this issue, an economywide aggregate production function is estimated with health capital as an input. HIV/AIDS is assumed to influence the accumulation of health capital proxied by a life expectancy shortfall measure. The model is estimated empirically using cross-country panel data spanning the period 1960–2000. Using a global sample, results indicate a negative impact of increasing HIV/AIDS prevalence on health capital and on economic growth. Using fairly conservative projections for HIV/AIDS prevalence, the model predicts a particularly large adverse impact on economic growth in Cambodia and Papua New Guinea.