Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration
Roland-Holst, David; Verbiest, Jean-Pierre; Zhai, Fan | November 2005
Abstract
With the emergence of People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy have been changed. Using the new dynamic global model, we present forecasts for Asian expansion over 2025. These baseline growth forecasts elucidate shifting patterns of regional specialization and their consequences for growth and structural change in the Asian economies. The central role of trade is examined through analysis of a variety of hypothetical global and regional trade agreements. Our results indicate that trade within the Asian region is far from reaching its potential, and policies that facilitate integration and more efficient regional trade can accelerate growth, especially for lower-income Asia. A deeper and more inclusive Asian free trade area can achieve for its members large benefits. As a emerging growth bridge between the PRC and India, ASEAN economies have the most to gain from Asian economic integration.
Citation
Roland-Holst, David; Verbiest, Jean-Pierre; Zhai, Fan. 2005. Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1903. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
1655-5252
Keywords
Trade Facilitation
Trade
Economic integration
Regional Economic Integration
Economic planning
Economic structure
Growth policy
Trade relations
Regional economics
Economic forecasting
Economic development projects
Success in business
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1903Metadata
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