Economic Growth, Technological Change, and Patterns of Food and Agricultural Trade in Asia
Hertel, Thomas W.; Ludena, Carlos E.; Golub, Alla | November 2006
Abstract
This paper projects global food supply and demand to the year 2025, with a particular emphasis on Asia. Technological change is found to be the critical factor in determining whether or not food prices will preserve their long-run, downward trend, as well as the likely patterns of trade and structural change. Historical and projected rates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth are decomposed into outward movement in the frontier and “catching up” to the world frontier. Overall, the baseline scenario reduces the poverty headcount ratio in People’s Republic of China (PRC) by more than 80 percent. In the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) it falls by about 40%. However, in South Asia, the falling headcount ratio (17%) is insuffi cient to lower aggregate poverty, due to the relatively strong rise in the region’s population. In the baseline projections, crop productivity in the ASEAN region declines by 0.4%/year. This refl ects decades of neglect in research expenditures. In an alternative scenario, future ASEAN crop TFP is raised to the Asia-wide rate of 0.95%/year. This alternative scenario boosts production in nearly all sectors of the economy, and lowers the poverty headcount ratio by an additional 14%. This could be expected to lift more than 30 million additional people out of poverty in the ASEAN region.
Citation
Hertel, Thomas W.; Ludena, Carlos E.; Golub, Alla. 2006. Economic Growth, Technological Change, and Patterns of Food and Agricultural Trade in Asia. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1882. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
1655-5252
Keywords
Sustainable agriculture
Agriculture
Commercial agriculture
Fight Against Poverty
Poverty In Developing Countries
Rural Poverty Alleviation
Urban Poverty
Rural Poverty
Agricultural education
Sustainable development
Environmental management
Agricultural investment
Disadvantaged Groups
Poverty Elimination
Economic and Social Development
Social Conditions
Agribusiness
Agricultural diversification
Agricultural resource
Farm produce
Land capability for agriculture
Food Supply
Rural land use
Technological innovations
Agricultural innovations
Farm supply industry
Natural resource
Adaptive natural resource management
Produce trade
Poor
Price Indexes
Intergrated rural development
Cost and standard of living
Population
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1882Metadata
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