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    The People's Republic of China as an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia?: Evidence from Vector Autoregression Models

    Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho | October 2009
    Abstract
    Developing Asia has traditionally relied on exports to the United States (US) and other industrialized countries for demand and growth. As a result, the collapse of exports to the US and other industrialized countries during the global financial and economic crisis has sharply curtailed gross domestic product (GDP) growth across the region. The emergence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a globally influential economic force is fueling hopes that it can supplement the US as an additional source of demand and growth. The central objective of this paper is to use vector autoregression (VAR) models to empirically investigate whether exports to the PRC have a significant and positive effect on the GDP of nine developing Asian countries. The study’s results from a three-variable VAR model indicate that PRC’s imports have a significant positive effect on the GDP of regional countries. However, the study’s results from a four-variable VAR model indicate that the PRC’s apparently positive impact reflects the US’ demand for Asian goods, rather than independent demand from the PRC. Therefore, overall, the study’s evidence suggests that the PRC is not yet an engine of growth for the rest of the region.
    Citation
    Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho. 2009. The People's Republic of China as an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia?: Evidence from Vector Autoregression Models. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1830. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    1655-5252
    Keywords
    Asian Development Bank
    Development
    Trade
    Development Goals
    Skills Development
    Sustainable Development
    Trade Flows
    Trade And Development
    Food Security And Trade
    Trade Volume
    Trade Potential
    Trade Flows
    External Trade
    Industrial policy
    New technology
    Innovations
    Industry
    Export policy
    Import policy
    Development assistance
    ADB
    Curriculum development
    Development assistance
    Development aid
    Development indicators
    Development potential
    Development models
    Project appraisal
    Performance appraisal
    Regional development bank
    Trade development
    Import volume
    Export volume
    Capital
    Business
    Communication in rural development
    Social participation
    Occupational training
    Partnership
    Joint venture
    System analysis
    Labor and globalization
    Labor policy
    Regional trading blocs
    Foreign trade and employment
    Developing countries
    Industrial priorities
    Technological innovation
    Technology transfer
    Foreign trade regulation
    Industrial relations
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1830
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    Author
    Park, Donghyun
    Shin, Kwanho
    Theme
    Development
    Trade
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise