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Integrating Risk into ADB’s Economic Analysis of Projects

dc.contributor.authorNigel Rayner
dc.contributor.authorAnneli Lagman-Martin
dc.contributor.authorKeith Ward
dc.date.accessioned2015-01-30T14:44:29Z
dc.date.available2015-01-30T14:44:29Z
dc.date.issued2002-06-01
dc.identifier.issn1655-5236
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11540/1792
dc.description.abstractCurrent practice suggests that project economic analysis can be strengthened through the use of quantitative risk analysis to investigate the effect on project outcomes of the expected range and distribution of values for key project parameters. The heightened focus on poverty reduction, which raises the profile of the poor’s vulnerability and exposure to risk, also suggests that poverty analysis can be improved through the use of risk-oriented techniques. The opportunity to improve practice in this area of project economic analysis is offered by the existence of dedicated and easy-to-use software packages for risk analysis. The paper suggests that, as a general rule, the greater the extent to which risk can be identified and quantified within the scope of routine project economic analysis, the stronger will be overall project design and the lower likelihood of project failure. Also, the more comprehensively the objective circumstances and subjective attitudes of poor project participants can be taken into account in project planning, the greater chance of projects achieving their poverty reduction objectives. To assist in better integrating risk analysis in project economic analysis, the paper provides a summary of key principles, ways in which risk analysis can be employed specifically to address poverty reduction objectives, and a summary of typical risk circumstances on a sector-by-sector basis. Practical guidance for applying typical risk analysis software is also provided.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.titleIntegrating Risk into ADB’s Economic Analysis of Projects
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertAlleviating Poverty
dc.subject.expertAnti-Poverty
dc.subject.expertExtreme Poverty
dc.subject.expertFight Against Poverty
dc.subject.expertGlobal Poverty
dc.subject.expertHealth Aspects Of Poverty
dc.subject.expertIndicators Of Poverty
dc.subject.expertParticipatory Poverty Assessment
dc.subject.expertPoverty Eradication
dc.subject.expertPoverty Analysis
dc.subject.expertPoverty In Developing Countries
dc.subject.expertPoverty Reduction Efforts
dc.subject.expertUrban PovertyResults-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
dc.subject.expertProject Evaluation & Review Technique
dc.subject.expertPerformance Evaluation
dc.subject.expertImpact Evaluation Reports
dc.subject.expertEvaluation Criteria
dc.subject.adbDevelopment Indicators
dc.subject.adbEnvironmental Indicators
dc.subject.adbEconomic Indicators
dc.subject.adbEducational Indicators
dc.subject.adbDemographic Indicators
dc.subject.adbHealth Indicators
dc.subject.adbDisadvantaged Groups
dc.subject.adbLow Income Groups
dc.subject.adbSocially Disadvantaged Children
dc.subject.adbRural Conditions
dc.subject.adbRural Development
dc.subject.adbSocial Conditions
dc.subject.adbUrban Development
dc.subject.adbUrban Sociology
dc.subject.adbProject finance
dc.subject.adbResources evaluation
dc.subject.adbNeeds assessment
dc.subject.adbCost benefit analysis
dc.subject.naturalPoor
dc.subject.naturalEconomic forecasting
dc.subject.naturalHealth expectancy
dc.subject.naturalSocial groups
dc.subject.naturalPolitical participation
dc.subject.naturalDistribution of income
dc.subject.naturalInequality of income
dc.subject.naturalDeveloping countries
dc.subject.naturalRural community development
dc.subject.naturalMass society
dc.subject.naturalSocial change
dc.subject.naturalSocial policy
dc.subject.naturalSocial stability
dc.subject.naturalPopulation
dc.subject.naturalSustainable development
dc.subject.naturalPeasantry
dc.subject.naturalUrban policy
dc.subject.naturalUrban renewal
dc.subject.naturalResults mapping
dc.subject.naturalRisk assessment
dc.subject.naturalParticipatory monitoring and evaluation
dc.subject.naturalCost effectiveness
dc.title.seriesERD Technical Note Series
dc.title.volumeNo. 2
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank
oar.themePoverty
oar.themeEvaluation
oar.adminregionAsia and the Pacific Region
oar.countryBangladesh
oar.countryBhutan
oar.countryIndia
oar.countryMaldives
oar.countryNepal
oar.countrySri Lanka
oar.countryBrunei Darussalam
oar.countryCambodia
oar.countryIndonesia
oar.countryLao People's Democratic Republic
oar.countryMalaysia
oar.countryMyanmar
oar.countryPhilippines
oar.countrySingapore
oar.countryThailand
oar.countryViet Nam
oar.countryCook Islands
oar.countryFiji
oar.countryKiribati
oar.countryMarshall Islands
oar.countryMicronesia, Federated States of
oar.countryNauru
oar.countryPalau
oar.countryPapua New Guinea
oar.countrySamoa
oar.countrySolomon Islands
oar.countryTimor-Leste
oar.countryTonga
oar.countryTuvalu
oar.countryVanuatu
oar.countryAfghanistan
oar.countryArmenia
oar.countryAzerbaijan
oar.countryGeorgia
oar.countryKazakhstan
oar.countryKyrgyz Republic
oar.countryPakistan
oar.countryTajikistan
oar.countryTurkmenistan
oar.countryUzbekistan
oar.countryChina, People's Republic of
oar.countryHong Kong, China
oar.countryRepublic of Korea
oar.countryMongolia
oar.countryTaipei,China
oar.identifierOAR-001852
oar.authorRayner, Nigel
oar.authorLagman-Martin, Anneli
oar.authorWard, Keith
oar.importtrue
oar.googlescholar.linkpresenttrue


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