Integrating Risk into ADB’s Economic Analysis of Projects
Rayner, Nigel; Lagman-Martin, Anneli; Ward, Keith | June 2002
Abstract
Current practice suggests that project economic analysis can be strengthened through the use of quantitative risk analysis to investigate the effect on project outcomes of the expected range and distribution of values for key project parameters. The heightened focus on poverty reduction, which raises the profile of the poor’s vulnerability and exposure to risk, also suggests that poverty analysis can be improved through the use of risk-oriented techniques. The opportunity to improve practice in this area of project economic analysis is offered by the existence of dedicated and easy-to-use software packages for risk analysis. The paper suggests that, as a general rule, the greater the extent to which risk can be identified and quantified within the scope of routine project economic analysis, the stronger will be overall project design and the lower likelihood of project failure. Also, the more comprehensively the objective circumstances and subjective attitudes of poor project participants can be taken into account in project planning, the greater chance of projects achieving their poverty reduction objectives. To assist in better integrating risk analysis in project economic analysis, the paper provides a summary of key principles, ways in which risk analysis can be employed specifically to address poverty reduction objectives, and a summary of typical risk circumstances on a sector-by-sector basis. Practical guidance for applying typical risk analysis software is also provided.
Citation
Rayner, Nigel; Lagman-Martin, Anneli; Ward, Keith. 2002. Integrating Risk into ADB’s Economic Analysis of Projects. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1792. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
1655-5236
Keywords
Alleviating Poverty
Anti-Poverty
Extreme Poverty
Fight Against Poverty
Global Poverty
Health Aspects Of Poverty
Indicators Of Poverty
Participatory Poverty Assessment
Poverty Eradication
Poverty Analysis
Poverty In Developing Countries
Poverty Reduction Efforts
Urban PovertyResults-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Performance Evaluation
Impact Evaluation Reports
Evaluation Criteria
Development Indicators
Environmental Indicators
Economic Indicators
Educational Indicators
Demographic Indicators
Health Indicators
Disadvantaged Groups
Low Income Groups
Socially Disadvantaged Children
Rural Conditions
Rural Development
Social Conditions
Urban Development
Urban Sociology
Project finance
Resources evaluation
Needs assessment
Cost benefit analysis
Poor
Economic forecasting
Health expectancy
Social groups
Political participation
Distribution of income
Inequality of income
Developing countries
Rural community development
Mass society
Social change
Social policy
Social stability
Population
Sustainable development
Peasantry
Urban policy
Urban renewal
Results mapping
Risk assessment
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Cost effectiveness
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1792Metadata
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