Energy Security, Sustainability, and Affordability in Asia and the Pacific

Abstract

"We calculate primary energy intensity (PEI), the carbon dioxide intensity of the primary energy mix (CIX), energy self-sufficiency (ESS), affordability of electricity (EOL), and primary energy diversification (DIV) from 2010 to 2035 for individual economies and for the Asia and Pacific region as a whole under business-as-usual and alternative scenarios. The PEI will decrease in most economies usually by more than 20% while the CIX will increase. The ESS will decrease except in Japan because of renewables while the DIV will increase slightly. By 2035, energy will be much more affordable in Asia because of strong economic growth. The EOL will be four times that of Europe and North America and twice that of Latin America. As regional aggregates, the PEI will decrease except in the Pacific, but the CIX will generally increase. The ESS will decrease substantially from 100% in 2009 to 59.8% in 2035; the DIV will remain at 2010 levels. Central Asia offers the best benefits for regional integration. Regionally integrating the power grid would make the system more manageable for larger shares of renewables and would alleviate the cost of importing fuel for economies without indigenous resources and for those whose fossil fuel reserves will be depleted by 2035."