Asian Migration Prospects: 2007-2012

Abstract

This paper uses a global comparative static general equilibrium (GE) modeling approach to examine the impact of five alternative scenarios aimed at liberalizing migration flows from and within Asia. The first four scenarios consider the impact of liberalizing migration flows into (i) developed Asia; (ii) North America, Europe, and Oceania; (iii) North America, Japan, Europe, and Oceania; and (iv) the Middle East from the less developed economies of Asia. The fifth scenario involves regionally based efforts to improve the working conditions/ legalization of migrants among the ASEAN 5 economies. The paper concludes that intra regional policies can offer an important mechanism by which the Asian economies can reap some of the gains from liberalizing migration; particularly given the reluctance of Europe and the United States to open their borders. Such regionally based policies aimed to offer potential gains in terms of real income and long run economic growth, particularly for those countries in East and Southeast Asia.