COVID-19 and Voter Turnout in Europe and in Korea

Abstract

Even while we are suffering from the pandemic, cyclical events arrive mercilessly as scheduled. While some of them are held virtually (i.e., online), and some of us are already used to virtual events, some cannot be completely virtualized, at least as of now. Among the latter kind are national elections. A major risk in holding an election during a pandemic is the possible increase of contagion due to the gathering of people in polling stations and campaign events. Empirical evidences of this concern are already being reported, particularly in Europe where many nations were badly hit by COVID-19 from early on. Cassan and Sangnier (2021), for instance, estimate that the municipal elections in France held in mid-March 2020 accounted for about 15% of all hospitalizations by the end of the same month. Similarly, Mello and Moscelli (2021) report that each percentage-point of turnout in the constitutional referendum of Italy in September 2020 meant about 1% increase of new COVID-19 cases. From the early stages of the pandemic, some governments have reacted to this risk by postponing elections, while some others have gone ahead as scheduled.