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    Bangladesh’s Trade with Asia: What Do Gravity Models Tell Us?

    Rahman, Sultan Hafeez; Ibon, MD. Wahid Ferdous | March 2019
    Abstract
    External trade has played a crucial role in Bangladesh’s strong economic growth and structural transformation, in the backdrop of rising prosperity in Asia as a whole. This paper examines the effect of national incomes and trade costs of three key Asian sub-regions—which “powered” the overall growth and prosperity in Asia as a whole—on Bangladesh’s external trade. The paper used the gravity model of international trade to test its validity in explaining Bangladesh’s trade with the sub-regions. Alternative empirical specifications of the model were econometrically estimated. The parameter estimates indicate that the central hypothesis of the gravity model is valid, i.e., trade between any two countries is directly proportional to their national incomes and inversely proportional to their trade costs. In line with these predictions, Bangladesh’s trade with the three key Asian sub-regions were found to be positively related to their GDPs and inversely related to trade costs. The predictive power of the estimated gravity models is also high. The statistical tests relevant to the econometric estimation of the specified model and the data used were conducted to ensure that the parameter estimates were robust. The model thus provides a solid basis for forecasting medium-term trade growth with the key Asian sub-regions, and hence it has a value to Bangladesh’s planners and policymakers. The results also imply that Bangladesh should pay greater attention to reviving trade (and industry) reforms to benefit from growing prosperity in its continental neighbourhood.
    Citation
    Rahman, Sultan Hafeez; Ibon, MD. Wahid Ferdous. 2019. Bangladesh’s Trade with Asia: What Do Gravity Models Tell Us?. © Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/14684.
    Keywords
    Regionalism
    Regional Economy
    Regional Trading Arrangements
    Regional Trade Integration
    Regional Economic Integration
    Regional Cooperation
    Interregional Cooperation
    Trade Disputes
    Trade Barriers
    Free Trade
    Trade
    Trade Agreements
    Intraregional Trade
    Border regions
    Cross-border
    Global value chain
    Government Policy
    Regional Organization
    Regional Plans
    Economic integration
    Regional Development Bank
    Preferential tariffs
    International negotiation
    Protectionist measures
    Access to markets
    Economic agreements
    International trade law
    Regional integration
    Trade relations
    Exports
    Economic integration
    Distribution
    Development Bank
    Trade policy
    Small Business
    Regional economics
    Regional planning
    Regional disparities
    Interregionalism
    Regional economic disparities
    Regional economic blocs
    Industrial arbitration
    Euro
    Inflation
    Business
    Finance
    Free trade
    Tariff
    Economic forecasting
    Environmental auditing
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Human rights and globalization
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/14684
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    1_Bangladesh's-Trade-with-Asia_Rahman_Ibon.pdf (452.4Kb)
    Author
    Rahman, Sultan Hafeez
    Ibon, MD. Wahid Ferdous
    Theme
    Regional
    Trade

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    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise