Evaluating the PRMPA Using a Synthetic Control Group

Abstract

The report evaluates the immediate short-term implications of a program loan provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to the government of Assam using a synthetic control method that allows not only to take into account baseline levels of performance for Assam but also allows the modeling of what would have happened in the absence of the ADB intervention. The report revealed that the ADB program led to an average of 0.40% increase in own-tax to gross state domestic product (GSDP) ratio in the 3 post-intervention years than what would have happened in the absence of the program.