How Is the Global Recession Impacting on Poverty and Social Spending? An ex ante assessment methodology with applications to developing Asia

Abstract

The global economic recession is severely affecting Asian economies. Timely assessment of the economic and social impacts is critical to the formulation and implementation of policy responses. This paper presents a simple methodology of ex ante impact assessment, focusing specifically on how the global recession will affect poverty and social expenditures in developing Asian countries. This involves two steps: first, to gauge how the crisis will affect national and household incomes; and, second, to assess how the income effects are transmitted to poverty and social spending.