Unpacking China’s Merchandise Trade with ASEAN during the Global Pandemic

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic since early 2019 has drastically disrupted economic activities throughout the world. According to the World Trade Organization, global merchandise trade flows decreased by 5.3% in 2020.1 Against this backdrop, however, bilateral trade between China and ASEAN bucked the trend and reached $684.6 billion, a 6.7 percent increase from 2019. This propelled ASEAN to dethrone the European Union as China’s largest trading partner for the first time, while making China ASEAN’s largest trading partner for 12 years in a row. But there is more going on beneath the surface. The purpose of this Perspective is to move beyond the aggregate trade measures to uncover additional patterns in China’s trade with ASEAN countries during the global pandemic. Using monthly export and import data disaggregated by country and commodity, released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC) of China,3 this Perspective seeks answers to the following questions: (1) What factors contributed to ASEAN becoming China’s number one trading partner? (2) How did the pandemic and related measures imposed by governments affect bilateral trade between China and ASEAN member countries? (3) What has or has not changed in the trade pattern between China and ASEAN as a result of the global pandemic?