Shaping Tomorrow’s International Order: Germany’s Policy Guidelines for the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

In early September 2020, the German government published its “Policy Guidelines for the Indo-Pacific”. With it, Germany joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Australia, France, India, Japan and the United States, in publicly laying out an Indo-Pacific vision. Even more recently, the Netherlands came out with its own version while an Indo-Pacific commission has made suggestions as a precursor to a strategy in the UK. At this stage, it is only a matter of time before the EU too will publish a policy paper on the Indo-Pacific. In Germany’s case, the effort marks a shift in its policy towards the Indo-Pacific, reflecting a new focus on a hence underappreciated region and a recognition that “It is already foreseeable today that, more than anywhere else, the shape of tomorrow’s international order will be decided in the Indo-Pacific”. It also reflects a reaction to external pressures and an implicit reassessment of Germany’s relations with China, its third largest trading partner. At the same time, once the decision to go ahead with the guidelines was made, Germans could hardly have proceeded with more caution – or diplomatic finesse: Those looking principally for a robust, military-focused contribution to an American-led Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision will be disappointed, while those, who take a nuanced look, factoring in Germany’s domestic and international situation have much to be hopeful about.