COVID-19 Impact on Farm Households in Punjab, Pakistan: Analysis of Data from a Cross-Sectional Survey

Abstract

Before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2019–2020 was projected at 3.2%, with agriculture contributing 2.9% (EAW 2020). However, the COVID-19 outbreak affected various channels of Pakistan’s economy, slowing it down; consequently, the provisional growth of GDP for 2019–2020 has been reestimated at –0.4%, with agriculture as the only sector showing positive growth at 2.7% (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 2020). While the long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will become more apparent in the coming months, this brief presents the pandemic’s initial impact on farm households in rural Punjab. Agriculture is central to Pakistan’s economy, contributing over 19% of GDP (PBS 2020) and employing about 39% of the labor force (PBS 2018). Agriculture is the backbone of the rural populace, which constitutes 63% of the country’s total population (PBS 2017), and supplies a large share of Pakistan’s exports (Government of Punjab 2018). This brief focuses on Punjab because it is the largest province in Pakistan in terms of population and contributes about 57% to the value of national agricultural production. The province produces more than 80% of the country’s wheat and cotton, almost two-thirds of its sugarcane, and about half of its maize; and its horticultural output represents 67% of national production (Government of Punjab 2018).