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    Demographic Change, Technological Advances, and Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis

    Park, Cyn-Young; Shin, Kwanho; Kikkawa, Aiko | July 2020
    Abstract
    This paper revisits the impact of population aging on economic growth. In order to understand the impact of population aging on economic growth, it is important to consider the changes in the entire age distribution of demography. Our empirical analysis indicates that a change in age distribution that increases the proportion of older people while reducing the working-age population lowers economic growth. We also investigate the effect of technological advances on the relation between population aging and economic growth, using four plausible proxies of technological advancement: life expectancy, labor productivity, automation, and total factor productivity. We find that increasing life expectancy and labor productivity benefit old age groups as they likely help older age groups contribute more positively to future growth. More automation also helps improve productivity of old age groups but in a different way. When robot density increases, old age groups become less disadvantaged compared to the young. Lastly, technological adoption enhances the growth contribution of productive age groups from the 30s to 60s when one compares low with high total factor productivity scenarios.
    Citation
    Park, Cyn-Young; Shin, Kwanho; Kikkawa, Aiko. 2020. Demographic Change, Technological Advances, and Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12230. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (print)
    2313-6545 (electronic)
    Keywords
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Development Economics
    Regional Economic Development
    Economic Impact
    Economic Crisis
    Economic Efficiency
    Economic Policies
    Regional Economic Development
    Job Evaluation
    Evaluation
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Performance Evaluation
    Impact Evaluation
    Economic Welfare
    Economic Incentives
    Economic Efficiency
    Sustainable development
    Demographic change
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Economies in transition
    Economic agreements
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    Crisis
    Unemployment
    Economic cooperation
    Gross domestic product
    Employment
    Economic forecast
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Financial crisis
    Labor economics
    Regional economics
    Turnover
    Economic survey
    Job analysis
    Labor turnover
    International relief
    Exports
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
    Wages and labor productivity
    Efficiency wage theory
    Income Distribution
    Online
    Digital
    Comparative economics
    Regional economics
    Economic development projects
    Open price system
    Price fixing
    Price regulation
    Consumer price indexes
    Financial crisis
    Labor economics
    Monetary fund
    Purchasing power
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12230
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-617-demographic-change-tech-advances-growth.pdf (1.095Mb)
    Author
    Park, Cyn-Young
    Shin, Kwanho
    Kikkawa, Aiko
    Theme
    Economics
    Development
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise