Demographic Change, Technological Advances, and Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis
Park, Cyn-Young; Shin, Kwanho; Kikkawa, Aiko | July 2020
Abstract
This paper revisits the impact of population aging on economic growth. In order to understand the impact of population aging on economic growth, it is important to consider the changes in the entire age distribution of demography. Our empirical analysis indicates that a change in age distribution that increases the proportion of older people while reducing the working-age population lowers economic growth. We also investigate the effect of technological advances on the relation between population aging and economic growth, using four plausible proxies of technological advancement: life expectancy, labor productivity, automation, and total factor productivity. We find that increasing life expectancy and labor productivity benefit old age groups as they likely help older age groups contribute more positively to future growth. More automation also helps improve productivity of old age groups but in a different way. When robot density increases, old age groups become less disadvantaged compared to the young. Lastly, technological adoption enhances the growth contribution of productive age groups from the 30s to 60s when one compares low with high total factor productivity scenarios.
Citation
Park, Cyn-Young; Shin, Kwanho; Kikkawa, Aiko. 2020. Demographic Change, Technological Advances, and Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12230. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537 (print)
2313-6545 (electronic)
Keywords
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Development Economics
Regional Economic Development
Economic Impact
Economic Crisis
Economic Efficiency
Economic Policies
Regional Economic Development
Job Evaluation
Evaluation
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Performance Evaluation
Impact Evaluation
Economic Welfare
Economic Incentives
Economic Efficiency
Sustainable development
Demographic change
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Economies in transition
Economic agreements
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
Crisis
Unemployment
Economic cooperation
Gross domestic product
Employment
Economic forecast
Economic indicators
Growth models
Gross domestic product
Macroeconomics
Economic forecast
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Financial crisis
Labor economics
Regional economics
Turnover
Economic survey
Job analysis
Labor turnover
International relief
Exports
Economic development projects
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Wages and labor productivity
Efficiency wage theory
Income Distribution
Online
Digital
Comparative economics
Regional economics
Economic development projects
Open price system
Price fixing
Price regulation
Consumer price indexes
Financial crisis
Labor economics
Monetary fund
Purchasing power
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