NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth outlook highly uncertain
Research, New Zealand Institute of Economic | June 2020
Abstract
The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts showed an even greater degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook ahead. With New Zealand having eliminated the number of active cases of COVID-19 and moving to Alert Level 1 on 8 June, focus now turns to keeping imported cases at bay on the long road to recovery for the economy. The large range in forecasts across the key economic measures highlights the uncertainty in how this recovery will pan out.
The rapidly evolving situation meant that due to the timing of when the forecasts were finalised this affected the extent to which an expected impact of the coronavirus was captured in the forecasts, and thus likely contributed to the wide range in forecasts. Nonetheless, we continue to consider the average of the analysts’ forecasts as providing a good indication of the growth outlook.
Although there is a downward revision to the growth outlook through to 2021, beyond that expectations are for stronger growth in the subsequent years. Hence the growth outlook for the New Zealand economy is V-shaped, with a sharp decline in activity forecast for the coming year, followed by a strong rebound.
Citation
Research, New Zealand Institute of Economic. 2020. NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth outlook highly uncertain. © New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12210.Keywords
Financial Stability
Financial Management System
Financial Restructuring
Capital Market Development
Market Development
Economics
Erosion
International Economics
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Performance Evaluation
Impact Evaluation
Foreign and Domestic Financing
Foreign Direct Investment
International Financial Market
Multilateral Financial Institutions
Economic Recession
Market
Crisis
Economic indicators
Growth models
Gross domestic product
Macroeconomics
Economic forecast
Business Financing
Investment Requirements
Business recessions
Multilateral development banks
Regulatory reform
Capital
Exports
Economic development projects
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Investment Requirements
Banks
International banks and banking
Capital movements
Central banks and banking
Bills of exchange
Swaps
Banks and banking
Financial crisis
Credit control
Credit allocation
Capital market
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