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    NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth outlook highly uncertain

    Research, New Zealand Institute of Economic | June 2020
    Abstract
    The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts showed an even greater degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook ahead. With New Zealand having eliminated the number of active cases of COVID-19 and moving to Alert Level 1 on 8 June, focus now turns to keeping imported cases at bay on the long road to recovery for the economy. The large range in forecasts across the key economic measures highlights the uncertainty in how this recovery will pan out. The rapidly evolving situation meant that due to the timing of when the forecasts were finalised this affected the extent to which an expected impact of the coronavirus was captured in the forecasts, and thus likely contributed to the wide range in forecasts. Nonetheless, we continue to consider the average of the analysts’ forecasts as providing a good indication of the growth outlook. Although there is a downward revision to the growth outlook through to 2021, beyond that expectations are for stronger growth in the subsequent years. Hence the growth outlook for the New Zealand economy is V-shaped, with a sharp decline in activity forecast for the coming year, followed by a strong rebound.
    Citation
    Research, New Zealand Institute of Economic. 2020. NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth outlook highly uncertain. © New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12210.
    Keywords
    Financial Stability
    Financial Management System
    Financial Restructuring
    Capital Market Development
    Market Development
    Economics
    Erosion
    International Economics
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Performance Evaluation
    Impact Evaluation
    Foreign and Domestic Financing
    Foreign Direct Investment
    International Financial Market
    Multilateral Financial Institutions
    Economic Recession
    Market
    Crisis
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Business Financing
    Investment Requirements
    Business recessions
    Multilateral development banks
    Regulatory reform
    Capital
    Exports
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
    Investment Requirements
    Banks
    International banks and banking
    Capital movements
    Central banks and banking
    Bills of exchange
    Swaps
    Banks and banking
    Financial crisis
    Credit control
    Credit allocation
    Capital market
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12210
    Metadata
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    consensus_forecasts_june_2020_.pdf (276.6Kb)
    Author
    Research, New Zealand Institute of Economic
    Theme
    Finance
    Economics
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise