COVID-19: Balancing the Infection and the Misery Curves

Abstract

Most natural and man-made disasters, from earthquakes to climate change to financial crises, have a disproportionately large negative impact on the poor and other vulnerable or marginalised groups. Pandemics like COVID-19 are not an exception. Although COVID-19 may be an “equal opportunity infector”,1 the poor are more susceptible to infection and to succumbing to it if infected. The poor are also likely to bear a disproportionately high share of the burden of curtailment measures designed to curb the spread of the virus. COVID-19 not only highlights existing inequalities and disparities, it exacerbates them. Therefore, informed policy making that considers these ground realities and how they affect costs and benefits is critical especially in countries with high proportions of the poor, and where safety nets are likely to be weak. Unfortunately, limited testing capabilities is another feature of being poor, and this prevents the assembly of data required to make informed decisions. Fear of the unknown, coupled with the potential for exponential spread, is leading governments in poor countries to err on the side of caution and to employ draconian measures. Lockdowns are being prolonged because the data required to support a safe lifting of the measures cannot be collected, even though the same data deficit means that extensions may not be justified either. The costs of lockdowns on the welfare of the poor is rising, and can accelerate the longer they are in place, in the absence of income support. The infection curve finds its counterpart in the misery curve, which measures the loss of incomes and livelihoods, contributing to long-term and sometimes irreversible harm. This makes prolonged lockdowns not only a potentially erroneous policy instrument for minimising overall harm, it is also likely to render them ineffective since implementation will be compromised as violations begin to increase. This suggests that there may be a need, over time, to ease certain restrictions that inflict significant misery on vulnerable groups. Otherwise, violations may increase to a point where they compromise the overall objectives of the lockdown, causing health and economic crises that together approximate a humanitarian disaster.