COVID-19: Balancing the Infection and the Misery Curves
Menon, Jayant | June 2020
Abstract
Most natural and man-made disasters, from earthquakes to climate change to financial crises, have a disproportionately large negative impact on the poor and other vulnerable or marginalised groups. Pandemics like COVID-19 are not an exception. Although COVID-19 may be an “equal opportunity infector”,1 the poor are more susceptible to infection and to succumbing to it if infected. The poor are also likely to bear a disproportionately high share of the burden of curtailment measures designed to curb the spread of the virus. COVID-19 not only highlights existing inequalities and disparities, it exacerbates them. Therefore, informed policy making that considers these ground realities and how they affect costs and benefits is critical especially in countries with high proportions of the poor, and where safety nets are likely to be weak.
Unfortunately, limited testing capabilities is another feature of being poor, and this prevents the assembly of data required to make informed decisions. Fear of the unknown, coupled with the potential for exponential spread, is leading governments in poor countries to err on the side of caution and to employ draconian measures. Lockdowns are being prolonged because the data required to support a safe lifting of the measures cannot be collected, even though the same data deficit means that extensions may not be justified either. The costs of lockdowns on the welfare of the poor is rising, and can accelerate the longer they are in place, in the absence of income support.
The infection curve finds its counterpart in the misery curve, which measures the loss of incomes and livelihoods, contributing to long-term and sometimes irreversible harm. This makes prolonged lockdowns not only a potentially erroneous policy instrument for minimising overall harm, it is also likely to render them ineffective since implementation will be compromised as violations begin to increase. This suggests that there may be a need, over time, to ease certain restrictions that inflict significant misery on vulnerable groups. Otherwise, violations may increase to a point where they compromise the overall objectives of the lockdown, causing health and economic crises that together approximate a humanitarian disaster.
Citation
Menon, Jayant. 2020. COVID-19: Balancing the Infection and the Misery Curves. © ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12156.ISSN
2335-6677
Keywords
Aged Health
Quality of Health Care
Public Health
Partnerships in Health Reform
Health Systems
Development projects
Physical infrastructure
Soft infrastructure
Infrastructure finance
Infrastructure bonds
Pandemic
Vaccination
World Health Organization
Quality of Health Care
Partnerships in Health Reform
Health
Health Standards
Health Care Cost Control
Health Care Access
Health Risk
Health Issues
Environmental Health Hazards
Education, Health and Social Protection
Urbanization
Urban Services
Urban Planning
Urban Conditions
Sanitary facilities
Health facilities
Hygiene
Waste disposal
Health hazards
Public health
Social Aspects Of Poverty
Private Healthcare
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Financial crisis
Medical Economics
Disease Control
Occupational Hygiene
Medical Services
Health Costs
Sanitation
Diseases
Water Quality
Respiratory Diseases
Health Indicators
Disadvantaged Groups
Social condition
Health Care Services
Health Standards
Health Service Management
Health Costs
Medical Statistics
Lockdown
Urban Population
Traditional Medicine
Medical Statistics
Drug Policy
Preventive Medicine
Medical Economics
Disease Control
Sanitation
Health Hazards
Disadvantaged Groups
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
Recession
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Market
Travel restriction
Migration
Stay at home
Bailout
Interest rate
Tourism
Hospices
Delivery of health care
Prevention of disease
Health status indicators
Sanitation services
Cost of medical care
Health status indicators
Sanitation services
Sickness
Illness
Prevention of disease
Health status indicators
Cost and standard of living
disabilities
Nutrition and state
Food policy
Nutrition policy
Covid
Health status indicators
Medical and health care industry
Vaccination
Delivery of medical care
Cost and standard of living
Economic conditions
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Conditionality
International relations
Social change
Social accounting
Inequality of income
Mass society
Social policy
Social stability
Population|SMEs
Unemployment
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