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    COVID-19: Balancing the Infection and the Misery Curves

    Menon, Jayant | June 2020
    Abstract
    Most natural and man-made disasters, from earthquakes to climate change to financial crises, have a disproportionately large negative impact on the poor and other vulnerable or marginalised groups. Pandemics like COVID-19 are not an exception. Although COVID-19 may be an “equal opportunity infector”,1 the poor are more susceptible to infection and to succumbing to it if infected. The poor are also likely to bear a disproportionately high share of the burden of curtailment measures designed to curb the spread of the virus. COVID-19 not only highlights existing inequalities and disparities, it exacerbates them. Therefore, informed policy making that considers these ground realities and how they affect costs and benefits is critical especially in countries with high proportions of the poor, and where safety nets are likely to be weak. Unfortunately, limited testing capabilities is another feature of being poor, and this prevents the assembly of data required to make informed decisions. Fear of the unknown, coupled with the potential for exponential spread, is leading governments in poor countries to err on the side of caution and to employ draconian measures. Lockdowns are being prolonged because the data required to support a safe lifting of the measures cannot be collected, even though the same data deficit means that extensions may not be justified either. The costs of lockdowns on the welfare of the poor is rising, and can accelerate the longer they are in place, in the absence of income support. The infection curve finds its counterpart in the misery curve, which measures the loss of incomes and livelihoods, contributing to long-term and sometimes irreversible harm. This makes prolonged lockdowns not only a potentially erroneous policy instrument for minimising overall harm, it is also likely to render them ineffective since implementation will be compromised as violations begin to increase. This suggests that there may be a need, over time, to ease certain restrictions that inflict significant misery on vulnerable groups. Otherwise, violations may increase to a point where they compromise the overall objectives of the lockdown, causing health and economic crises that together approximate a humanitarian disaster.
    Citation
    Menon, Jayant. 2020. COVID-19: Balancing the Infection and the Misery Curves. © ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12156.
    ISSN
    2335-6677
    Keywords
    Aged Health
    Quality of Health Care
    Public Health
    Partnerships in Health Reform
    Health Systems
    Development projects
    Physical infrastructure
    Soft infrastructure
    Infrastructure finance
    Infrastructure bonds
    Pandemic
    Vaccination
    World Health Organization
    Quality of Health Care
    Partnerships in Health Reform
    Health
    Health Standards
    Health Care Cost Control
    Health Care Access
    Health Risk
    Health Issues
    Environmental Health Hazards
    Education, Health and Social Protection
    Urbanization
    Urban Services
    Urban Planning
    Urban Conditions
    Sanitary facilities
    Health facilities
    Hygiene
    Waste disposal
    Health hazards
    Public health
    Social Aspects Of Poverty
    Private Healthcare
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Financial crisis
    Medical Economics
    Disease Control
    Occupational Hygiene
    Medical Services
    Health Costs
    Sanitation
    Diseases
    Water Quality
    Respiratory Diseases
    Health Indicators
    Disadvantaged Groups
    Social condition
    Health Care Services
    Health Standards
    Health Service Management
    Health Costs
    Medical Statistics
    Lockdown
    Urban Population
    Traditional Medicine
    Medical Statistics
    Drug Policy
    Preventive Medicine
    Medical Economics
    Disease Control
    Sanitation
    Health Hazards
    Disadvantaged Groups
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    Recession
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Travel restriction
    Migration
    Stay at home
    Bailout
    Interest rate
    Tourism
    Hospices
    Delivery of health care
    Prevention of disease
    Health status indicators
    Sanitation services
    Cost of medical care
    Health status indicators
    Sanitation services
    Sickness
    Illness
    Prevention of disease
    Health status indicators
    Cost and standard of living
    disabilities
    Nutrition and state
    Food policy
    Nutrition policy
    Covid
    Health status indicators
    Medical and health care industry
    Vaccination
    Delivery of medical care
    Cost and standard of living
    Economic conditions
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Social change
    Social accounting
    Inequality of income
    Mass society
    Social policy
    Social stability
    Population|SMEs
    Unemployment
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12156
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ISEAS_Perspective_2020_64.pdf (276.1Kb)
    Author
    Menon, Jayant
    Theme
    Health
    Economics
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise