How Important are Exports and Foreign Direct Investment for Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China?
Xing, Yuqing; Pradhananga, Manisha | July 2013
Abstract
The global financial crisis and the recent growth slowdown in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have led to questions about the sustainability of PRC growth. The argument is that the PRC is too dependent on external demand and that it needs to rebalance its economy toward domestic consumption. However, conventional measures of external demand—share of net exports and exports as a share of gross domestic product (GDP)—are biased and do not accurately measure the contribution of external demand to GDP growth. In this paper, we propose two measures that are simple modifications of the conventional measures. We argue that our proposed measures provide a more accurate estimate of the vulnerability of the PRC economy to external shocks, in the form of sudden drops in exports and foreign direct investment (FDI). Our estimates show that in 2001 exports and FDI accounted for 18.2% of GDP growth and by 2004 the share had risen to 49%. During 2005–07, the contribution of exports and FDI to growth remained 38%–40%. Our estimates also show that the impressive recovery of the PRC economy in the post-crisis period owed at least 53% of its growth to exports and FDI. Based on these results, we conclude that the PRC economy remains highly dependent on external demand in the form of exports and FDI, and rebalancing the economy toward domestic demand has not yet been achieved.
Citation
Xing, Yuqing; Pradhananga, Manisha. 2013. How Important are Exports and Foreign Direct Investment for Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China?. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1189. License: CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO.Keywords
Trade Finance
Risk Financing
Regional Development Finance
Public Finance
Infrastructure Financing
Financing of Infrastructure
Financial Security
Financial Intermediation
Finance And Trade
Enterprise Financing
Trade Regulation
Trade Finance
Regional Trade Agreements
General Agreement On Tariffs And Trade
Taxation
Business Financing
Investment Requirements
Capital Needs
Tax Incentives
Project Risks
Tariff agreements
Customs convetions
Import policy
Export policy
Investments
Finance
Market
Markets
Use tax
Tax administration and procedure
Taxing power
Effect of taxation
Business enterprises
Foreign trade and employment
Mentoring in business
Trade routes
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http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1189Metadata
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