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    Projected Disease Transmission, Health System Requirements, and Macroeconomic Impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines

    Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Uy, Jhanna; Haw, Nel Jason; Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Francisco-Abrigo, Kris | April 2020
    Abstract
    The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic that has infected at least 1.2 million people and caused more than 67,000 deaths worldwide. The Philippines has recorded 3,764 confirmed cases and 177 deaths as of April 7, 2020 and has implemented an enhanced Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from March 17 to April 30 in attempts to limit population movement and curb the spread of the epidemic. Based on our disease transmission model, we project that aggressive efforts in the post-ECQ period to isolate at least 70% of infectious cases through better contact tracing, social distancing, individual or household isolation, and reduced delays in time to seek care for symptomatic cases are necessary to suppress the outbreak. Otherwise, lifting the ECQ but maintaining current conditions of delayed time to seek care for symptomatic cases merely delays the progression of the outbreak but still results in around 8% of the population infected. For all scenarios that do not successfully isolate at least 70% of infectious individuals, demands for health care resources generated by COVID-19 at the peak of the outbreak far exceed available supply in the health sector. For example, assuming no further improvements in the ability to isolate symptomatic cases post-ECQ, the country’s health system would require a 1.51 million beds, 456 thousand ICU beds, 246 thousand ventilators, 727 thousand doctors, a million nurses, 91 thousand medical specialists, and 36 million PPE sets on the peak day of the outbreak in August 2020. The COVID-19 epidemic is expected to affect not only the country’s health system, but also the economy. Projections based on a Leontief input-output model suggests that the Philippine economy may lose between 276.3 billion (best case) and PHP 2.5 trillion (worse case) due to COVID-19. The transport, storage, and communication sector is expected to suffer substantial losses because of expected declines in tourism (PHP 11.7- to 124.3-billion). Other services (PHP 41.5-356.9 billion), manufacturing (PHP 82.1- to 855.2-billion), and wholesale and retail trade (PHP 93.2- to 724.8-billion) are projected to be substantially negatively affected by weaker global and domestic demand. Extending the ECQ by one more month may potentially cost the Philippine economy at least PHP150 billion due to possible declines in household consumption as workers remain unemployed for longer periods.
    Citation
    Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Uy, Jhanna; Haw, Nel Jason; Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Francisco-Abrigo, Kris. 2020. Projected Disease Transmission, Health System Requirements, and Macroeconomic Impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines. © Philippine Institute for Development Studies. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/11871.
    Keywords
    Aged Health
    Quality of Health Care
    Public Health
    Partnerships in Health Reform
    Health Systems
    Development projects
    Physical infrastructure
    Soft infrastructure
    Infrastructure finance
    Infrastructure bonds
    Pandemic
    Vaccination
    World Health Organization
    Quality of Health Care
    Partnerships in Health Reform
    Health
    Health Standards
    Health Care Cost Control
    Health Care Access
    Health Risk
    Health Issues
    Environmental Health Hazards
    Education, Health and Social Protection
    Urbanization
    Urban Services
    Urban Planning
    Urban Conditions
    Sanitary facilities
    Health facilities
    Hygiene
    Waste disposal
    Health hazards
    Public health
    Social Aspects Of Poverty
    Private Healthcare
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Financial crisis
    Medical Economics
    Disease Control
    Occupational Hygiene
    Medical Services
    Health Costs
    Sanitation
    Diseases
    Water Quality
    Respiratory Diseases
    Health Indicators
    Disadvantaged Groups
    Social condition
    Health Care Services
    Health Standards
    Health Service Management
    Health Costs
    Medical Statistics
    Lockdown
    Urban Population
    Traditional Medicine
    Medical Statistics
    Drug Policy
    Preventive Medicine
    Medical Economics
    Disease Control
    Sanitation
    Health Hazards
    Disadvantaged Groups
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    Recession
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Travel restriction
    Migration
    Stay at home
    Hospices
    Delivery of health care
    Prevention of disease
    Health status indicators
    Sanitation services
    Cost of medical care
    Health status indicators
    Sanitation services
    Sickness
    Illness
    Prevention of disease
    Health status indicators
    Cost and standard of living
    disabilities
    Nutrition and state
    Food policy
    Nutrition policy
    Covid
    Health status indicators
    Medical and health care industry
    Vaccination
    Delivery of medical care
    Cost and standard of living
    Economic conditions
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Social change
    Social accounting
    Inequality of income
    Mass society
    Social policy
    Social stability
    Population
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/11871
    Metadata
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    pidsdps2015.pdf (1.260Mb)
    Author
    Abrigo, Michael R.M.
    Uy, Jhanna
    Haw, Nel Jason
    Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.
    Francisco-Abrigo, Kris
    Theme
    Health
    Economics

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    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise