Projected Disease Transmission, Health System Requirements, and Macroeconomic Impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines
Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Uy, Jhanna; Haw, Nel Jason; Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Francisco-Abrigo, Kris | April 2020
Abstract
The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic that has infected at least 1.2 million people and caused more than 67,000 deaths worldwide. The Philippines has recorded 3,764 confirmed cases and 177 deaths as of April 7, 2020 and has implemented an enhanced Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from March 17 to April 30 in attempts to limit population movement and curb the spread of the epidemic.
Based on our disease transmission model, we project that aggressive efforts in the post-ECQ period to isolate at least 70% of infectious cases through better contact tracing, social distancing, individual or household isolation, and reduced delays in time to seek care for symptomatic cases are necessary to suppress the outbreak. Otherwise, lifting the ECQ but maintaining current conditions of delayed time to seek care for symptomatic cases merely delays the progression of the outbreak but still results in around 8% of the population infected.
For all scenarios that do not successfully isolate at least 70% of infectious individuals, demands for health care resources generated by COVID-19 at the peak of the outbreak far exceed available supply in the health sector. For example, assuming no further improvements in the ability to isolate symptomatic cases post-ECQ, the country’s health system would require a 1.51 million beds, 456 thousand ICU beds, 246 thousand ventilators, 727 thousand doctors, a million nurses, 91 thousand medical specialists, and 36 million PPE sets on the peak day of the outbreak in August 2020.
The COVID-19 epidemic is expected to affect not only the country’s health system, but also the economy. Projections based on a Leontief input-output model suggests that the Philippine economy may lose between 276.3 billion (best case) and PHP 2.5 trillion (worse case) due to COVID-19. The transport, storage, and communication sector is expected to suffer substantial losses because of expected declines in tourism (PHP 11.7- to 124.3-billion). Other services (PHP 41.5-356.9 billion), manufacturing (PHP 82.1- to 855.2-billion), and wholesale and retail trade (PHP 93.2- to 724.8-billion) are projected to be substantially negatively affected by weaker global and domestic demand. Extending the ECQ by one more month may potentially cost the Philippine economy at least PHP150 billion due to possible declines in household consumption as workers remain unemployed for longer periods.
Citation
Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Uy, Jhanna; Haw, Nel Jason; Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Francisco-Abrigo, Kris. 2020. Projected Disease Transmission, Health System Requirements, and Macroeconomic Impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines. © Philippine Institute for Development Studies. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/11871.Keywords
Aged Health
Quality of Health Care
Public Health
Partnerships in Health Reform
Health Systems
Development projects
Physical infrastructure
Soft infrastructure
Infrastructure finance
Infrastructure bonds
Pandemic
Vaccination
World Health Organization
Quality of Health Care
Partnerships in Health Reform
Health
Health Standards
Health Care Cost Control
Health Care Access
Health Risk
Health Issues
Environmental Health Hazards
Education, Health and Social Protection
Urbanization
Urban Services
Urban Planning
Urban Conditions
Sanitary facilities
Health facilities
Hygiene
Waste disposal
Health hazards
Public health
Social Aspects Of Poverty
Private Healthcare
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Financial crisis
Medical Economics
Disease Control
Occupational Hygiene
Medical Services
Health Costs
Sanitation
Diseases
Water Quality
Respiratory Diseases
Health Indicators
Disadvantaged Groups
Social condition
Health Care Services
Health Standards
Health Service Management
Health Costs
Medical Statistics
Lockdown
Urban Population
Traditional Medicine
Medical Statistics
Drug Policy
Preventive Medicine
Medical Economics
Disease Control
Sanitation
Health Hazards
Disadvantaged Groups
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
Recession
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Market
Travel restriction
Migration
Stay at home
Hospices
Delivery of health care
Prevention of disease
Health status indicators
Sanitation services
Cost of medical care
Health status indicators
Sanitation services
Sickness
Illness
Prevention of disease
Health status indicators
Cost and standard of living
disabilities
Nutrition and state
Food policy
Nutrition policy
Covid
Health status indicators
Medical and health care industry
Vaccination
Delivery of medical care
Cost and standard of living
Economic conditions
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Conditionality
International relations
Social change
Social accounting
Inequality of income
Mass society
Social policy
Social stability
Population
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