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Nowcasting Economic Growth in India The Role of Rainfall

dc.contributor.authorTara Iyer
dc.contributor.authorAbhijit Sen Gupta
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-31T14:16:25Z
dc.date.available2019-12-31T14:16:25Z
dc.date.issued2019-10-30
dc.identifier.issn2313-6537 (print)
dc.identifier.issn2313-6545 (electronic)
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11540/11255
dc.description.abstractThis study provides a toolkit to nowcast, or produce early estimates of, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India. We use a dynamic factor model (DFM) to nowcast GDP growth in India on a quarterly basis from January 2000 to December 2018. The DFM methodology offers a powerful and tractable means of nowcasting economic growth while accounting for mixed-frequency data, which is data released on different dates, and missing time series. The specified DFM, which includes six quarterly indicators and 12 higher-frequency monthly variables, is able to effectively nowcast growth in India. The variables in the framework are drawn from the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors in India and selected to represent aggregate economic activity. There are several interesting results in the study. A key finding is that rainfall has high predictive content for GDP growth in India, a novel result from the viewpoint of the existing nowcasting literature.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.titleNowcasting Economic Growth in India The Role of Rainfall
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Analysis
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Framework
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Models
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Performance
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Planning
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Policies
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Reform
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Stabilization
dc.subject.expertEconomic Development
dc.subject.expertEconomic Infrastructure
dc.subject.expertEconomic Policies
dc.subject.expertRegional Economic Development
dc.subject.expertMicrofinance Programs
dc.subject.expertPublic Finance
dc.subject.expertLocal Financing
dc.subject.expertFinancial Stability
dc.subject.expertFinancial Sector Regulation
dc.subject.expertPublic Financial Management
dc.subject.expertFinancial System
dc.subject.expertFinancial Statistics
dc.subject.expertForeign and Domestic Financing
dc.subject.expertFinancial Inclusion
dc.subject.expertForeign direct investment
dc.subject.adbEnterprises
dc.subject.adbFinancial aid
dc.subject.adbEconomies in transition
dc.subject.adbLocal Finance
dc.subject.adbLocal Government
dc.subject.adbInsurance Companies
dc.subject.adbBanks
dc.subject.adbSocial Equity
dc.subject.adbPension Funds
dc.subject.adbMutual Funds
dc.subject.adbFinancial Aspects
dc.subject.adbFiscal Policy
dc.subject.naturalSocial responsibility of business
dc.subject.naturalAccounting
dc.subject.naturalPersonal budgets
dc.subject.naturalCost and standard of living
dc.subject.naturalBank accounts
dc.subject.naturalCredit control
dc.subject.naturalRegulatory reform
dc.subject.naturalBanks and banking
dc.subject.naturalDigital Financial Service
dc.subject.naturalPension plans
dc.subject.naturalIndividual retirement accounts
dc.subject.naturalEmployee pension trusts
dc.subject.naturalInvestment management
dc.subject.naturalInvestments
dc.subject.naturalMultiemployer pension plans
dc.subject.naturalKeogh plans
dc.subject.naturalIndividual retirement accounts
dc.subject.naturalPension plans
dc.subject.naturalEmployee pension trusts
dc.subject.naturalPension trusts
dc.subject.naturalInvestment companies
dc.subject.naturalInternational banks and banking
dc.subject.naturalStock exchanges
dc.subject.naturalRemittance
dc.title.seriesADB Economics Working Paper Series
dc.title.volumeNo. 593
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank
oar.themeEconomics
oar.themeFinance
oar.adminregionSoutheast Asia Region
oar.countryIndia
oar.identifierOAR-010619
oar.authorIyer, Tara
oar.authorGupta, Abhijit Sen
oar.importTRUE
oar.googlescholar.linkpresenttrue


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