The Feasibility of an ASEAN Customs Union Post- 2015

Abstract

This Perspective revisits the issue of establishing a customs union for ASEAN, and seeks to identify key challenges that would arise should the grouping decide to deepen economic integration. To this end, this article analyzes the GDP implications of an ASEAN customs union and discusses the border, beyond-the-border and political economy challenges in establishing such a deeper economic integration. The analysis concludes that despite net positive GDP gains from an ASEAN CU, there are significant economic and political challenges. However, ASEAN’s track record, especially in economic integration, suggests that it has the capability to overcome them. Hence, there are grounds for cautious optimism about ASEAN’s progress towards a full or partial CU post-2015.