NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows lower growth outlook

Abstract

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows a softer near-term growth outlook, relative to the previous quarter. The downward revision partly reflects a lower starting point in light of the softer than expected data on economic activity. The export growth outlook has also been revised lower, likely reflecting increasing uncertainty over the effects of the trade war between the US and China. Slowing growth in China has the potential to weigh on demand for New Zealand exports, both directly from China and indirectly from Australia.